Jordan and Tyler are in the field chasing a 10% Hatched tornado risk at the time of this post we are headed to Wichita, KS but we will likely go either north or south from Wichita depending on the forecast. Check out our live stream and watch for video updated on Facebook and Twitter!
This has been one crazy event with record flood levels across Missouri and Arkansas. The water is moving to the east toward the Mississippi River causing major problems along the way. Unfortunately flooding remains one of the most deadly weather phenomenon in the US, and proves time and time again this event is no exception. This event will surpass the 2011, 1993, and 1982 floods in many locations surpassing records by feet!
Here is a collection of graphics showing this event!
7 Day Precipitation Totals ending 12-30-2015
River gauges showing record or near record levels today.
I was in Tulsa already, my wife had meetings for work. So i met up with Denton Sachs for the big Oklahoma loop.
Tulsa > Osage County > Okmulgee > Checota > Salisaw > Roland > Muskogee > Tulsa! Woot!
We did get on a tornado warned storm near the Okmulgee airport but saw nothing as it was a rain wrapped mess! The highlight (if you want to call it that) was the strong winds near Council Hill. We saw a small lowering pass just to our north shortly after we got hit with 50-60mph outflow winds. I doubt the mesovortex that passed just north had anything much to do with the outflow winds but it was kind fun being November and all!
I didn’t log GPS on this chase as i drove and we used Denton’s laptop get over it!!
The Storm Patrol is westbound and down headed out to a decent looking chase somewhere in Western Kansas or Oklahoma or maybe even the Texas Panhandle!
Looking at the morning analysis we have a pacific cold front extending from a surface low near Burlington, CO to Boise City, OK to Dalhart, TX where a dry line intersects the front from Dalhart, TX to Presidio, TX on the Mexican border. The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a moderate risk of severe weather including some strong tornadoes in a large area including Southern Nebraska, Western and Central Kansas and Oklahoma and a small part of Western North Texas.
The big question for The Storm Patrol today is how will morning storms affect the severe weather event later today? Will we need to head to Western Kansas or Southwest Oklahoma? How will the ongoing storm near Shamrock, TX progress as it moves Northeast into Central and North Oklahoma? The answers to these questions should become more clear later this afternoon. I would expect to see special soundings launched in the 18-21z time frame this will help determine our target.
If you are looking for weather information for this event here are some links.
Jordan left Joplin, MO about 5 AM on the Friday the 8th and came up to Pittsburg, KS and picked me up for the chase. We had breakfast at the newly renovated McDonalds over interstate 44 near Vinita, OK. Looking at the morning models we decided to head to Wichita Falls, TX where we sat and sat… and sat for until about 3:30. At that point storms started to push into the area we went after a storm near Vernon, TX and chased it back Southeast along US 287 through Oklaunion and Electra, TX. The storm got really rain wrapped so we couldn’t see a thing we decided to drop to the south storm near Throckmorton, TX which
didn’t quite go as planned. We tried to get to the storm but the roads didn’t work with the southeast storm motion we ended up in a carwash in Graham, TX watching where we watched the hail and ate Mexican food and called it a day.
We started off the day in a LaQuinta in Wichita Falls, TX where we looked over the morning models. The models showed two areas that might work out for a chase north (Western KS / Southeast Colorado) and south (North Central Texas). We chose to go north because the southern area looked like it would have a hard time recovering from the morning convection. So on the road again, we set Liberal, KS in the GPS and 5 hours later like magic we where their! We met up with Ray Bohac and hit crew at a Liberal gas station. Sitting at the gas station for a few hours watching chasers and towering CU come and go we finally saw a storm fire near Perryton, OK on radar and we went for it.
Near Floris, OK we stopped and got an amazing time lapse of a rotating storm that was moving NNE. From Floris we followed the storm north up towards Meade, KS and then east until dark when the storm died. We met up with Jay Cazel at the end of the chase and ate Mexican food in Pratt and then programmed in home about 3 AMwe where home!
The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting severe weather outbreaks this Friday 5-8-2015 and Saturday 5-9-2015 across the southern plains. The Storm Patrol is going to head out early Friday morning to chase this event. We will be live streaming our chase during the afternoon hours Friday and Saturday.
This is going to be a large scale severe weather outbreak!
If you live in the risk areas make your severe weather plans now don’t wait until the last minute! Also remember to stay weather aware Friday and Saturday!
Here are some links to find official forecasts for this event
Well the chase was decent we saw some really cool supercell structure and got some time-lapse video of a few things.
We started up the chase in Pittsburg, Kansas where Jordan and I met up with a news crew from a local TV station that were doing a story on storm chasing. Our target was Great Bend, Kansas where the SPC had a enhanced risk with a 5% tornado risk. A surface low was moving from extreme Southeast Colorado Northeast towards Salina, KS from 19z to around 02z. The convection allowing models RPM / HRRR were showing a supercell collocated with the low forming around 22z.
We made it to Wichita around 3pm where we went north to Newton, Kansas and stopped to get something to eat and watch things develop. It looked like a small return that formed over Hutchinson, Kansas might break the cap and move Northeast near McPherson, Kansas. Setting up just Southeast of McPherson we watch towering cu form and dissipate for about an hour or so but nothing happened.
We made the decision to head toward the ongoing storm near Salina even though there were tons of chasers on the storm already as it was the only game in town. We got on the storm around 7 about 10 miles West of Salina and followed it back to the east until we lost light. We saw a few wall clouds and a cool mother ship updraft. After that we called it and went and had dinner at Applebee’s in Park City, KS with Denton Sachs and Jay Cazel.
Jordan and I are headed out towards the Kansas target today. The Kansas target is not looking the best but will see what happens, SPC has an Enhanced Risk for parts of Kansas and another area in Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Louisiana.
1630z SPC Outlook 4-24-2105
We will be streaming once we get a bit closer to the target near the surface low. The latest convective models show discrete convection forming just about collocated with the surface low. At the time of this post the low was located in extreme southeast Colorado and moving Northeast.
Typical the first panhandle chase of 2015 and I’m sick with stomach flu, Jordan is busy with work! The SPC is forecasting and enhanced risk of severe weather for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle’s as well as a chunk of Southwest Kansas.
So some would say the long term drought is pushing the dry air masses further to the East therefore the dry line typically forms east of the Panhandle in Western OK and Kansas. I haven’t looked over the research to see if there are any papers to back this idea up but it makes sense.
As for today the dry line doesn’t care about the drought monitor, it’s going to form where it wants. And just as Mother Nature is doing as she wishes so is Murphy.
Thanks for reading will be back chasing storms as soon as I get better and Jordan gets his project done at work!